Democracy threatened today? Not much

11 October 2022

Democracy is threatened today? From inside or outside? Not much.

•  More resilient than many suspect, expect.
  • 1/ it works! Despite the imperfections, argument.
  • 2/ it now has its teeth into a major global bloc, institutions / processes cemented by generations of experience.
  • 3/ challenges, threats [inside or out] only encourage vigilance and unity.
• Real threats? Titanic exogenous shocks, like what undid Weimar Germany, Tsarist Russia.
• Historically recent and sudden: a radical antidote to traditional autocracy, mankind’s costly default condition for 5 millennia.
• 2022 a bad year for autocracy: Russia, PRC and Iran. The model a dud.

The Thinking Centre [1] now often worries about the “death of democracy”, its fragility, how it “emerged in very special circumstances just two centuries ago”, its current threats, especially from within, the drop in poll support for “democracy”, appeal of a “strong man” in face of sharply polarised electorates, economic and other “problems”, now including climate change.

But we need question this from a much wider perspective.

Democracy is likely be much tougher than many realise. It withstood gales in the 20^th C, and ironically is likely today much stronger for it. Just as Mr Trump’s outrageous questioning the umpire, his finale on Jan 6^th 2021 will likely do a service for democracy in the US.

HISTORY

The history of democracy – real full franchise rules-based liberal democracy – is very patchy till after WW2.

There was a dramatic start made long ago by the direct democracy reached for a time by some city states in ancient Greece, an extraordinary and radical outcome for its times [despite imperfections like no citizenship for slaves] considering there has been no other such case in the history of humankind till recent centuries.

Parliamentary democracy finally emerged in Europe, particularly Britain from c 11^th C CE, but over many centuries, such that the franchise was extended painfully slowly, women [about half the population] not getting the vote till 1920 in US and 1928 in Britain! And this after centuries of European states marauding autocratically across the globe. In the US the jaundiced democracy of John Adams time did not allow for the slaves either, comprising near 20% of the population.

So it really only took root after WW2, and with sudden unexpected and sustained success.

The two main progenitors of WW2, Germany and Japan, switched immediately to democracy.

India was freed from its colonial patron, remains the world’s largest democracy, despite religious factional unrest. Later, importantly, also outside the old West, it eventually made further great strides in E Asia, in S Korea and Taiwan, then also in the large state of Indonesia.

A tragedy of the 20^th C was how domestic violence engendered by world wars [from the self-inflicted calamity of WW1] deflected both Russia and China from a reformist path to democracy, both countries falling to nationalist “Communist” extremists, the nightmare of which we still live with today, in the Ukraine and in PRC threatening Taiwan.

Meanwhile the economic chaos of the 1929 Crash delivered the other 20^th C tragedy of Nazi Germany [before which its parliamentary vote was c5%], throttling Weimar Germany’s tangible democratic progress.

However the success of democracy in withstanding the tumultuous calamitous irruption of  1914-45 [thanks especially to the US, also, ironically, the USSR], and its emphatic post WW2 consolidation – in face of ongoing Cold War hostility – is testament to its appeal and support in the old West [ie US and Europe] and now in the non-West converts, ie especially East Asia.

DEMOCRACY TODAY

Yes autocracy has had a tenacious hold for millennia, has been “the default condition of mankind”, at great cost across history since mid 4^th millennium BCE.

But now real liberal democracy, especially post WW2:

• Has demonstrated its historically radical capabilities, as an antidote to destructive traditional autocracy,
• Has its teeth into a major world bloc [US / Europe / European outliers, and now through Asia: India, E Asia], cemented by democratic institutions and processes having now endured for generations, evident for example in the US after Jan. 6^th 2021, when Trump gained NO official support – from courts or government arms – for his far fetched self serving false claims about the 2020 US election result.

Also – at least in theory, on the face of it, in word if not deed – its principles of free and fair elections, of human rights, of governance etc are now widely acknowledged internationally, by most international organisations, starting with the UN, even if not in practice when autocrat powers use their powers within these organisations to obstruct democratic process.

Ironically, perversely, even autocrat power themselves acknowledge the principles by pretending to implement them, by mounting legislative bodies and courts, conducting elections, even if in word only, like Russia’s annexations in Ukraine October 2022 based on referenda there.

PROGNOSIS

Because of its sustained success, its now strong institutions and processes, and the fierce commitment to its principles by its practitioners – in face of hostility outside and inside – liberal democracy will likely stay as tenacious as it was in the 20^th C when it faced violent autocracy.

John Adams apparently said “democracy never lasts long. It soon wastes and exhausts itself. There never was a democracy yet that did not commit suicide. But what did he know of democracy then? Circa 1800. What cases had he in mind, when the history of real democracy was still very thin?

No advanced well established democracy has yet fallen “from within” and it seems highly unlikely any will.

Challenges from opponents inside [Trump etc; CRT, Woke activists, Cancellers etc, especially in tertiary education] or outside [Putin and Xi etc] are likely only to continue to encourage vigilance and unity among supporters.

The only real threat to democracy evident from history is exogenous economic and political chaos, the likes of which upended both Weimar Germany and the nascent democracy in pre WW1 Tsarist Russia, though in both cases democracy was still only weakly manifested.

2002: TOUGH YEAR FOR AUTOCRACY

Russia under Putin is embroiled in what seems like an existential blunder, at a terrible price to its neighbour.

Putin’s outrageous return to traditional free for all imperialism is now reminding the democracies how much they value their model, their freedoms, just as did the post WW2 Cold War when the Soviet Union swallowed East Europe and with PR China oversaw the Korean War.

China is struggling with a lopsided economy hamstrung simply because the leadership is scared stiff by democracy, and demographically challenged too.

Finally protest has again erupted in Iran’s theocratic autocracy.

Note: 1/ Death of democracy is now a live threat, Intolerance and fear are rapidly undermining our world order. JONATHAN SUMPTION, The Australian, Inquirer October 7, 2022

Democracy is going through a rough time. It is openly challenged by autocratic states like China, Russia and Iran. In the West’s oldest democracies, it is challenged from within by growing numbers who have lost faith in it as a form of government.